India’s Moment
Transcript of this video –
0:00 and %uh
0:04 on by post-crisis
0:14 views have emerging economies are confusing
0:17 initially they were touted as the engines of the world economy
0:21 and that the pivot to Asia was the remedy for sluggish growth
0:25 now they seem to be faltering and the cracks
0:28 are being exposed no longer are they the solution
0:32 but are now being called a source of softness such diametrically opposed
0:37 views
0:38 and all in a six-year space if there’s a flaw in the forecast
0:43 its succumbing to the urged isolate economies
0:47 from the global machine clearly the world economies
0:51 have rocked emerging markets initially with the positive response
0:56 and now with the negative but if the planets high-wire
0:59 act is coming to an end giving way to stronger growth
1:03 what’s the outlook for emerging markets and in this case
1:07 one of its key monoliths the Indian subcontinent
1:11 like most emerging economies India fared well in the frenzied global growth that
1:17 preceded the crisis
1:18 its job was to build capacity to accommodate global demands on its
1:23 outputs
1:24 in a departure from historical growth theory
1:28 its service sector surged as the skills
1:31 stifled world tapped into India’s particular capabilities
1:35 the heavy need for supporting infrastructure
1:38 created investment momentum that carried the economy through the worst moments of
1:43 the crisis
1:44 and the season of stimulus that followed stretched out the streak
1:48 infrastructure initiatives
1:51 and key reforms then began to slip and growth edged back
1:56 creating concerned about india’s overall model that has reversed course
2:01 with hopes that the new government will reenergize
2:04India’s economic renewal
2:09 throughout these ups and downs India’s potential growth
2:12 has remained solid its vast population
2:16 is a key asset many in the labor force population are
2:20 unemployed even more are underemployed
2:23 a black mark on the economy’s past but a storehouse of growth for the future
2:28 investment is bringing technology that is leapfrogging the
2:32 antiquated systems embedded in OECD markets
2:36 and the one trillion dollar infrastructure program
2:39 is renewing and creating the means of moving people
2:43 goods and services more efficiently
2:46 this in turn is enhancing the country’s productivity
2:50 estimates peg long run annual growth potential
2:53 as high as eight-percent leading some to call
2:57 India the next growth cycles China is this at all possible
3:01 indeed it is but there are some key
3:05 f’s first India House a massive infrastructure gap
3:10 current estimates peg it at 1.7 trillion dollars
3:14 the Global Competitiveness Report ranks India’s infrastructure
3:18 ninetieth of 144 nations
3:21 in its annual survey filling that gap is an ongoing problem for India
3:26 as intergovernmental squabbles often inhibit programs
3:30 that would vastly improve commerce and overall welfare
3:34 secondly there’s the population studies claim that there are 600 million
3:40 indians that depend on agricultural systems
3:43 better in many cases centuries out-of-date
3:46 upgrading this system depends on a system of land tenure
3:51 but currently confines farming to small-scale operations
3:54 if there were some way to break through this significant logjam
3:58 and if those labors worry deployable in higher valued activities
4:03 it’s hard to add up the positive impact this would have
4:07 on world growth was out likely
4:11 last time I look the rest of the world’s population
4:15 was aging rapidly the current growth cycle
4:18 is vastly short of labor skilled labor I’m skilled labor
4:22 and everything in between economies planet wide will be looking for sources
4:27 of additional labor
4:29 and there’s no greater source then in India hopes are high that India will
4:34 resume its pre-crisis
4:35 path of reform and construction that will create as much as possible
4:40 an environment that will attract the interest of the rest of the world
4:44 in many ways this is India’s moment
4:47 but to capture the moment there is an obvious
4:50 need for speed that hasn’t always been India strong suit
4:54 and poses a threat to this golden opportunity increasing the importance
4:59 of current day policy actions and announcements
5:02 the bottom line in many ways this is
5:06 India’s moment it’s possible for the subcontinent to seize the moment
5:10 and the signs are encouraging it is
5:14 unlikely to miss the moment go it is such a key piece of the global growth
5:18 story
5:19 that we may all have to wait for or to somehow help
5:23 things to come together until next week i’m peter hall
5:27 by
India’s Moment
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